A Season-Dependent Weather Predictability Barrier Phenomenon in the Martian Atmosphere
Accurate Martian weather forecasts are important for future exploration missions, yet the atmosphere’s intrinsic predictability remains incompletely understood. Using the bred vector method in the LMD Mars Planetary Climate Model, this study identifies an annually recurring, Season-dependent Weather Predictability Barrier (S-WPB) in which temperature errors grow rapidly during particular seasons. EMARS reanalysis data provide independent support for the phenomenon, while analysis of the bred vectors links the rapid error growth to feedback among specific error structures, near-saturated water vapor conditions, and cloud radiative effects.
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