A Season-Dependent Weather Predictability Barrier Phenomenon in the Martian Atmosphere
Jul 21, 2026·
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Yi Zhuang
Wansuo Duan
Li Dong
Abstract
Accurate Martian weather forecasts are important for future exploration missions, yet the atmosphere’s intrinsic predictability remains incompletely understood. Using the bred vector method in the LMD Mars Planetary Climate Model, this study identifies an annually recurring, Season-dependent Weather Predictability Barrier (S-WPB) in which temperature errors grow rapidly during particular seasons. EMARS reanalysis data provide independent support for the phenomenon, while analysis of the bred vectors links the rapid error growth to feedback among specific error structures, near-saturated water vapor conditions, and cloud radiative effects.
Type
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 131(7), e2025JE009522. American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Status
Peer-reviewed
中文简介
准确的火星天气预报对于未来探测任务十分重要，但火星大气自身的可预报性仍缺乏系统认识。本研究在 LMD Mars 行星气候模式中引入繁殖向量（BV）方法，考察初始误差的增长，发现火星大气每年都会在特定季节出现季节依赖的天气可预报性障碍（S-WPB）：温度初始误差在这些时段更容易显著放大。EMARS 再分析资料也侧面佐证了这一现象。进一步分析表明，这种快速误差增长源于特定初始误差结构与近饱和水汽条件的相互作用，并通过水冰云辐射效应形成正反馈。研究结果为理解火星天气预报误差的增长、改进目标观测和资料同化策略，以及未来火星探测任务的气象保障提供了理论依据。
